Trade analysis and recommendations for the euro

The price test of 1.1645 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

The unexpected decline in industrial production in Italy has heightened concerns about the state of the eurozone economy. This alarming signal, following a series of mixed economic indicators, casts doubt on the prospects for a steady recovery of the region's manufacturing sector. The weakening of the euro triggered by the Italian data reflects increased risk aversion in financial markets.

But this afternoon, the key event will be the publication of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee's decision on the key interest rate. There is virtually no doubt that it will be lowered. Immediately afterward, a press conference by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will take place. The expected rate cut, initiated by FOMC, is viewed as a measure supporting the labor market. However, further rate cuts carry certain risks — including renewed inflation growth, which remains a concern within the Fed. For this reason, Jerome Powell's speech will be of particular interest, as he will likely explain the motives behind the FOMC decision and share his outlook on future monetary policy. Market participants will be carefully analyzing his statements, trying to anticipate the regulator's next steps.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today you can buy the euro when the price reaches the level of 1.1645 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.1720. At 1.1720, I plan to exit the market and also open a sell position in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry point. A stronger rise in the euro may occur after a dovish stance from the Fed. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1626 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1645 and 1.1720.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1626 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1570, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point retracement upward). Pressure on the pair will return today if the Fed takes a hawkish stance on future rate decisions. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1645 price level at a time when the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1626 and 1.1570.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – assumed price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profit; above this level, further growth is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – assumed price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profit; below this level, further decline is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions with great caution. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you ignore money management principles and trade large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan — like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are, by default, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.