empty
29.05.2025 11:15 AM
Forecast for EUR/USD on May 29, 2025

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to decline and consolidated below the support zone at 1.1260–1.1282. Therefore, today's price drop may continue toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% at 1.1186. A consolidation above the 1.1260–1.1282 support zone would favor the euro and suggest a potential recovery toward 1.1320 and 1.1374.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure on the hourly chart has changed. The last completed upward wave broke the previous peak, but the most recent downward wave broke the previous low. This suggests a potential trend reversal to bearish. Recent news regarding the cancellation of EU tariff hikes and the mutual reduction of tariffs between China and the U.S. supported the bears.

The news backdrop was virtually absent on Wednesday, with the only significant release coming late in the evening—the FOMC minutes. As a reminder, this is a report on the latest Federal Reserve meeting and typically does not reveal anything new to traders. Yesterday's report was no exception. The minutes indicated that most FOMC members favor maintaining a cautious approach to monetary policy amid rising economic uncertainty. Fed officials noted the inability to accurately assess the impact of the trade wars on the economy and thus prefer to wait for the full effects of tariffs to materialize. At present, it remains unclear which of Trump's tariffs will remain, which will be reduced or increased, and with which countries trade agreements will be signed. Consequently, the Fed expressed a desire to keep the interest rate in the 4.25–4.5% range until the situation becomes clearer. The report had little impact on the dollar.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair returned to the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1213. A rebound from this level would support the euro and resume growth toward the 127.2% retracement at 1.1495. A consolidation below 1.1213 increases the likelihood of a continued decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.0969. Currently, no emerging divergences are visible on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 3,507 long positions and opened 6,814 short positions. The sentiment of the "non-commercial" group remains bullish—thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 206,000, while short positions stand at 132,000. The gap continues to grow in favor of the bulls. Thus, the euro remains in demand, while the dollar does not. The trend is consistent.

For sixteen consecutive weeks, large market players have been reducing short positions and increasing longs. The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed still favors the U.S. dollar, but Trump's policies remain a stronger influence on traders. These policies could lead to a U.S. recession and other long-term structural issues.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:

  • U.S. – Q2 GDP Change (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC)

On May 29, the economic calendar includes two key U.S. events. However, the market's reaction may be muted, as traders are already familiar with Q1 GDP data. Bears now need stronger support from news and reports to maintain momentum.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:

Short positions were previously viable below the 1.1374–1.1380 zone with targets at 1.1320 and 1.1282—both of which were achieved. The consolidation below 1.1260–1.1282 allows traders to maintain shorts with a target at 1.1186. I recommend considering long positions on a rebound from 1.1186 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1260–1.1282.

Fibonacci grids are constructed from 1.1574–1.1066 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Bitcoin. El fortalecimiento del dólar podría dar un giro bajista al mercado de criptomonedas

Hoy, el mercado se centrará en la publicación del informe sobre la inflación en Estados Unidos, que se espera que muestre no solo que ha dejado de bajar, sino

Pati Gani 13:12 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Bitcoin. El logro de nuevos máximos puede detenerse

El precio del Bitcoin superó momentáneamente el nuevo nivel histórico de 111 000, pero no logró consolidarse por encima de él. El apoyo proviene, tanto para él como para

Pati Gani 10:53 2025-05-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD. El 12 de mayo. El conflicto en Ucrania podría llegar a su fin.

Buenos días, estimados traders. El par EUR/USD el viernes subió hacia la zona de resistencia 1,1265 – 1,1282, rebotó desde allí y giró a favor del dólar estadounidense. El proceso

Samir Klishi 10:27 2025-05-12 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el gas al 8 de abril de 2025

Gas natural (NG) Ni al final de la semana pasada, ni mucho menos al comienzo de la actual, la cotización del gas natural logró superar la resistencia de 4.200, reforzada

Laurie Bailey 08:11 2025-04-08 UTC+2

Pronóstico del gas para el 17 de marzo de 2025

Gas natural (NG) La jornada de hoy se abrió por encima de la línea indicadora Kruzenshtern en el marco diario. Al mismo tiempo, el oscilador Marlin cambió de dirección hacia

Laurie Bailey 07:02 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el Bitcoin el 21 de febrero de 2025

Bitcoin El Bitcoin ha cambiado de opinión sobre el desarrollo de una caída hacia soportes objetivos cómodos, y en su lugar, siguiendo el sentimiento de riesgo general, ha revertido desde

Laurie Bailey 07:23 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Bitcoin - análisis técnico de la situación

Viernes, y el Bitcoin sigue esperando. Ninguna de las partes enfrentadas tiene prisa por presentarse y ser activa. En la incertidumbre actual, el posicionamiento de los principales índices de referencia

Evangelos Poulakis 07:45 2025-02-14 UTC+2

Previsión para el gas natural (GN) del 5 de febrero de 2025

En el gráfico semanal la semana pasada el precio se revirtió desde el nivel de soporte 3.017 - desde los máximos de septiembre 2024, agosto 2023, febrero 2023 y también

Laurie Bailey 07:51 2025-02-05 UTC+2

#NDX - análisis técnico de la situación

A finales del año pasado, el índice marcó un nuevo máximo histórico (22141), tras lo cual se detuvo la subida, comenzó la formación de la corrección y la consolidación. Ahora

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-02-04 UTC+2

Bitcoin 30 Enero - análisis técnico de la situación

A pesar de marcar un nuevo máximo la semana pasada (109986), el Bitcoin detuvo su tendencia alcista y comenzó a formar incertidumbre. Hasta ahora, el formato semanal ha proyectado

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-01-30 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.