Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1588 level coincided with when the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero line, confirming a correct buy entry point for the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 30 pips.

Yesterday, the euro found some support from Italian inflation data, but buyers failed to maintain control of the market—primarily due to the Iran–Israel military conflict—which quickly brought pressure back onto the pair.

Today, if economic reports from Germany and the eurozone (ZEW Institute) are favorable, the euro could gain support. Market participants will closely watch the current situation index and business sentiment index to assess the region's future growth prospects. Positive data may indicate economic recovery and strengthen confidence in the euro. However, if the ZEW data disappoints, the euro could face pressure. Pessimism in business circles may trigger recession concerns and reduce interest in the European currency. In such a case, investors may shift toward safer assets like the U.S. dollar.

The Bundesbank's monthly report will also carry weight. Experts will analyze the current state of the German economy and any possible monetary policy adjustments. Any signs of policy tightening or inflation concerns may affect the euro's value.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today upon reaching 1.1573 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1634. At 1.1634, I will exit the market and consider selling the euro in the opposite direction for a 30–35 pip reversal trade.

Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1551 level while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downside and prompt an upward market reversal. A rise toward the 1.1573 and 1.1634 targets can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1551 (red line on the chart), targeting 1.1491. I will exit short positions at 1.1491 and immediately consider buying on a rebound, aiming for a 20–25 pip retracement.

Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1573 level while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upside potential and likely trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1551 and 1.1491 is possible.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.