Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1672 level occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just started to move up from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro, which led to a gain of more than 30 points.

The euro showed slight strengthening in the first half of the day. However, this growth appears fragile, as the main factors that have been pressuring the euro in recent weeks remain in effect. In particular, uncertainty persists regarding future trade relations with the U.S. and the eurozone's economic performance. Under these conditions, any escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and the European Union or worsening eurozone macroeconomic data could lead to further depreciation.

In the second half of the day, there are no scheduled U.S. economic indicators, suggesting lower volatility. Weak eurozone data, continued uncertainty around U.S.-EU trade relations, and differences in monetary policy approaches between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will continue to weigh on the pair.

As for the intraday strategy, I plan to focus on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buying the euro is possible today at around 1.1705 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1732. At 1.1732, I plan to exit the market and open a short position in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-point move from the entry level. A strong rally in the euro is unlikely today.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1684 level, while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential and trigger a market reversal to the upside. Growth to resistance levels at 1.1705 and 1.1732 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1684 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1652, where I will exit and open a buy position in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move back). Pressure on the pair is likely to return only after Trump's statements.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1705 level, while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1684 and 1.1652 can be expected.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – entry price for long positions;
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or point to manually secure profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for short positions;
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or point to manually secure profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones for guidance.

Important:Beginner Forex traders should approach market entry decisions with caution. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-losses can lead to a rapid loss of your entire deposit, especially if you don't apply money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan—like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.