Trade Analysis and Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 147.20 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move down from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. However, a major downward movement did not follow.

The market appears to be in a holding pattern, awaiting stronger drivers to push the pair out of its current range. The absence of U.S. data is keeping investors cautious, avoiding impulsive decisions. USD/JPY volatility is expected to remain low in the second half of the day, limiting the chances of strong directional moves. Still, traders will be closely monitoring developments in U.S.–Japan trade negotiations. Any signs of progress could boost market optimism and support risk assets, leading to a decline in USD/JPY. On the other hand, further escalation in trade tensions would likely renew bullish momentum in the pair.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches around 147.40 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 147.96 (thicker green line). At 147.96, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-point pullback. A continuation of the uptrend may support further growth.Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 147.17 level while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 147.70 and 147.96 may follow.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below 147.17 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a quick decline. Sellers will target 146.76, where I will exit shorts and open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25-point bounce. However, significant downward pressure is unlikely to return today.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 147.40 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 147.17 and 146.76 may follow.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – entry price for long positions;
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or a point to manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for short positions;
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or a point to manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important:Beginner traders in the Forex market should be extremely cautious when entering positions. It's best to stay out of the market ahead of key fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, your deposit can be lost very quickly—especially if you're trading large volumes without proper money management.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan—like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.