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22.04.2025 07:46 AM
What to Pay Attention to on April 22? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

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No macroeconomic events are scheduled for Tuesday—neither in the U.S., the Eurozone, Germany, nor the U.K. Thus, even if the market were paying any attention to macroeconomic data, it simply isn't available today. The market continues to trade solely on the "Trump factor." Moreover, Monday showed that the dollar can experience a significant drop even in the absence of news from the White House. We wouldn't be surprised if the U.S. currency continues its decline today.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

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There's no point in discussing any fundamental developments apart from Trump's trade war. The dollar's decline can continue indefinitely if Trump keeps imposing new or increasing existing tariffs. We advise traders to monitor statements by top officials of major countries and alliances regarding tariffs. Any escalation could lead to another drop in the dollar. Any signs of de-escalation—though currently absent—would support the greenback. However, the dollar may continue falling even without fresh headlines.

Last week, Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on semiconductors, affecting many countries globally. The trade conflict with China remains unresolved and carries the most weight in the market's eyes. Trump is also once again pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and has even threatened to fire Jerome Powell, though he lacks the authority to do so. The market continues to respond to Trump's actions in a clear-cut way—by selling the dollar.

General Conclusions:

Both currency pairs could move in any direction during the second trading day of the week. As we can see, the British pound continues to rise steadily, and the euro followed suit on Monday. Any potential market-moving news today will likely come only from the White House. If there are no updates from Trump, the nature of movement in both currency pairs is unlikely to change. As before, trading should be based solely on technical levels.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

  1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
  2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
  3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
  4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
  5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
  6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
  7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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