Forex Analysis & Reviews: 13.03.2025 - EUR/USD. March 13th. Bulls...

13.03.2025 12:18 PM

EUR/USD. March 13th. Bulls Are Tired of Playing Along with Trump

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued a very weak decline after rebounding from the 1.0944 level. This morning, it reached the 200.0% corrective level at 1.0857. A rebound from this level would favor the euro and a resumption of growth toward 1.0944. A consolidation below 1.0857 would open the way for bears toward the support zone of 1.0781 – 1.0797 and the Fibonacci 161.8% level at 1.0734.

The wave structure on the hourly chart has transformed. The last completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the new upward wave broke the previous peak. Thus, the current wave pattern suggests a "bullish" trend. At the same time, the ongoing growth is impulsive, driven by bulls attacking due to concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy following Donald Trump's policies. This is almost the only reason for the recent collapse of the U.S. dollar.

The information background on Wednesday was interesting for everyone except traders. There were no new statements from Donald Trump regarding his international battle for justice, so traders found no reason to continue selling the dollar and had little desire to trade at all. Even though an important U.S. inflation report was released yesterday, market activity remained very weak throughout the day. The impact of Trump's tariffs on market sentiment seems to be weakening. Last week, we saw an explosive rise in the pair, but this week's growth has been much more modest. The bulls are losing momentum, and the tariff story has already been priced in. I doubt that every new tariff-related news will trigger another powerful surge in buying. The market should return to focusing on economic data, which does not indicate negative changes in the U.S. economy or positive developments in the European economy. I expect a downward wave.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues its upward movement after breaking out of the horizontal channel. The trend remains "bullish," as indicated by the upward trend channel. The pair's consolidation above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0818 suggests further growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 76.4% at 1.0969. The "bearish" divergence on the CCI indicator and the overbought RSI indicator both signal a potential decline, yet the bears are attacking very weakly. A rebound from 1.0969 would indicate a possible decline toward 1.0818 or lower.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 2,524 Long positions and closed 12,795 Short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains "bearish," but it has been weakening lately. The total number of Long positions held by speculators is now 185,000, while the number of Short positions stands at 195,000.

For twenty consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing their euro holdings, confirming an undisputed "bearish" trend. The divergence in monetary policy approaches between the ECB and the Fed continues to favor the U.S. dollar. While the "bearish" advantage is weakening, it is still too early to declare the trend over. The number of Long positions has been growing for five weeks in a row—coinciding, interestingly, with Donald Trump's presidency.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:

Eurozone – Industrial Production Change (10:00 UTC). U.S. – Producer Price Index (12:30 UTC). U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC).

The economic calendar for March 13 includes three scheduled events, but all are of low significance. Market sentiment on Thursday may see minimal influence from the news flow. The only hope is Donald Trump.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Selling the pair is possible on a rebound from 1.0944 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.0857 and 1.0797. Alternatively, selling could be considered upon a close below 1.0857, targeting 1.0797 and 1.0734. Buying remains an option, but I am still wary of the strong and uninterrupted rise in the pair. I am cautious when prices move in only one direction.

Fibonacci retracement levels are built between 1.0529 – 1.0213 on the hourly chart and 1.1214 – 1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

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# EURUSD Technical analysis

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