Trade Review and Recommendations for the Euro

There were no tests of the levels I identified earlier in the day, so I didn't enter any trades.

Following the release of data showing a slight 0.1% increase in the eurozone's GDP for Q2, the euro showed a weak positive reaction, keeping the pair within a narrow trading range. Despite this modest improvement, concerns about a possible recession in the region persist. Given the significant rate cuts by the ECB, stronger economic growth is expected by year-end, but Trump's trade tariffs could cancel out the positive effects. The labor market outlook also remains mixed. Unemployment is relatively low, but fears of job losses are rising in certain sectors, particularly manufacturing.

In the second half of the day, attention will turn to the ADP employment report and the revised U.S. Q2 GDP data. Encouraging results could boost the U.S. dollar. Labor market stability and positive GDP dynamics would ease fears of an impending recession, strengthening investor confidence in the Federal Reserve's ability to control inflation without derailing economic growth.

Also today, the U.S. FOMC will announce its interest rate decision. Holding rates steady would support the dollar's strength against the euro. However, market movements are rarely one-sided. Even with a favorable FOMC decision for the dollar, brief pullbacks may occur due to profit-taking. Therefore, traders and investors should stay vigilant and consider various market scenarios. The FOMC decision is just one of many factors influencing the FX market. Don't forget about the labor market and inflation data, where the Fed still faces challenges.

As for intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches the 1.1572 level (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.1635. At 1.1635, I plan to exit and open a sell position in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move. A strong euro rally today would require a dovish stance from the Fed. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests the 1.1536 level twice while the MACD is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downside and trigger a reversal. The expected targets are 1.1572 and 1.1635.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches the 1.1536 level (red line on the chart), targeting 1.1495, where I will exit and buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point bounce). Selling pressure is likely to increase if the data is strong. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests the 1.1572 level twice while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upside and trigger a downward reversal. The targets in this case are 1.1536 and 1.1495.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – suggested take-profit level or point to manually fix profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – suggested take-profit level or point to manually fix profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, always consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of major economic reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Without them, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't practice money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan—like the one I've outlined above. Making spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.