empty
24.03.2025 11:01 AM
Wave analysis of BTC/USD on March 24. Bitcoin going on with its correction

This image is no longer relevant

The BTC/USD pair has managed to halt its recent decline. The current wave pattern now suggests a potential short-term upside for the world's leading cryptocurrency.

Wave structure signals a correction phase

The 4-hour wave analysis for BTC/USD is quite clear. After completing a five-wave bullish trend, a downward corrective phase began. At present, this downtrend appears corrective rather than impulsive, which aligns with my earlier forecasts. Based on this wave setup, I do not expect Bitcoin to exceed $110,000–$115,000 in the coming months.

Previously, Bitcoin's rally was supported by a wave of positive news — including institutional investments, government endorsements, and even pension fund allocations. However, Trump's policy shifts have caused a shift in sentiment. Investors are pulling out, and it's a reminder that markets can't rally forever.

The wave originating on January 20 doesn't resemble a clean impulse wave. It seems to be forming a complex correction, which could take months to fully develop. Within this first wave, a detailed a-b-c-d-e structure can be identified. If the current wave count is accurate, we are now in a bullish corrective wave, likely forming a classic three-wave a-b-c pattern.

The market sees no catalyst for a new trend

BTC/USD has stabilized for now, and the wave structure supports a short-term rise. However, I emphasize that this forecast is purely technical, as the fundamental backdrop remains hostile to Bitcoin, stocks, and other risk assets.

While new tariff announcements have been scarce lately, reciprocal tariffs between the US and EU are expected to go into effect in early April. It's hard to believe that Donald Trump will abandon his quest to turn America's trade deficit into a surplus. In my view, more tariffs are inevitable, which means Bitcoin remains a risky investment in the current environment.

Some analysts argue that Bitcoin could benefit from a weakening US economy, as investors seek alternatives during a potential recession. But I disagree. Bitcoin's circulating supply is relatively small, with a vast portion stored in cold wallets. This makes the asset prone to manipulation by large holders.

At this point, Bitcoin isn't functioning as a true currency — the liquidity in the market is too low. This makes it more of a speculative asset, and one where wave analysis provides the most reliable guidance for short- and medium-term outlooks.

This image is no longer relevant

Final thoughts

Based on the current wave analysis, Bitcoin's recent rally appears to be over. We are likely entering a complex, multi-month correction. That's why I have consistently advised against buying the cryptocurrency — and now, even more so.

A drop below the low of wave 4 would signal a full transition into a bearish trend phase, albeit likely a corrective one. This makes the search for shorting opportunities more appealing.

In the near term, we could see a bullish corrective wave, which may provide another chance to open short positions, targeting $68,000 and potentially lower — down to $55,000.

On the larger time scale, the upward five-wave structure has already played out. Now, the market appears to be building either a downward corrective phase or possibly a fully developed bearish trend.

Key principles of my analysis:

  • Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often change.
  • If you are uncertain about the market trend, it's better to stay out.
  • There is no 100% certainty in price direction. Always use Stop Loss orders to protect your positions.
  • Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies for a more comprehensive approach.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Alexander Dneprovskiy
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Litecoin is attempting to test its nearest resistance level, Friday, July 11, 2025.

Litecoin, Friday, July 11, 2025. Litecoin managed to break through and close above its pivot level. Although there is potential for a correction, positive fundamental factors provide an opportunity

Arief Makmur 08:00 2025-07-11 UTC+2

Trading tips for crypto market on July 10 (North American session)

Bitcoin and Ethereum traded higher today during the European session, which indicates that yesterday's purchases were not a one-time event and that buyers are still active in the market. This

Miroslaw Bawulski 16:25 2025-07-10 UTC+2

Crypto market shows extremely low volatility

Bitcoin volatility has dropped to a historic low, while Bitcoin itself is trading within 2% of its all-time high. The lack of willingness to buy at current prices could become

Jakub Novak 13:46 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Crypto market resilient despite dollar volatility

BTC/USD is rising again today after yesterday's dip, overall maintaining its bullish momentum. Fundamentally, conditions continue to support BTC/USD growth in the medium term. The global economic and market landscape

Jurij Tolin 14:14 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Japan's digital bank by Metaplanet

While Bitcoin stubbornly refuses to decline, fueled by massive demand from ETF funds, the Japanese firm Metaplanet is planning to use its Bitcoin reserves to create the first digital bank

Jakub Novak 13:46 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Trading tips for crypto market on July 8

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum remain on a sound footing, poised to continue a bullish trend. As long as BTC continues trading above the $105,000 mark, the odds of further growth

Miroslaw Bawulski 12:16 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Clarity act on digital asset market gains support

Bitcoin and Ethereum have returned to the channels in which they spent most of last week. While Bitcoin has yet to break above the $109,000 mark, the prospects

Jakub Novak 11:00 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Elon Musk's America party advocates for Bitcoin and digital assets

The recently formed political party, America Party led by Elon Musk, will support Bitcoin. This was announced by the Tesla CEO himself on social media. "Fiat is hopeless

Jakub Novak 15:31 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Bitcoin will test its Support.1 after successfully breaking through and closing below the Uptrendline intraday chart, Friday, July 4, 2024.

Bitcoin – Friday, July 4, 2025. With an inflow into the Bitcoin ETF around USD$ 50 billion, it shows strong interest from investors, thus strengthening the legitimacy of this cryptocurrency

Arief Makmur 07:58 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Ripple has the potential to correct and weaken down to the Support level of 2.1924, Friday, July 4, 2025.

Ripple – Friday, July 4, 2025 Friendly regulatory pressure and the case with the SEC that seems to be stopped and open interest in the derivatives market that has jumped

Arief Makmur 07:58 2025-07-04 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.