Forex Analysis & Reviews: 15.04.2025 - Forecast for EUR/USD on...

15.04.2025 11:55 AM

Forecast for EUR/USD on April 15, 2025

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair continued to rise but returned by the end of the day to the 261.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1318. A double rebound from this level allows traders to expect a reversal in favor of the euro and a resumption of growth toward the 323.6% Fibonacci level at 1.1456. A consolidation below 1.1318 would indicate a continuation of the decline toward the levels of 1.1240 and 1.1179.

The most recent completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous one, while the new upward wave broke the previous high. This indicates that a bullish trend remains in place. Donald Trump continues to impose new tariffs on imports, maintaining an atmosphere of panic and chaos in the markets. Bulls regained control last week, and there are quite rational reasons for that.

There was no significant news background on Monday, but Donald Trump is still leaning toward further escalation of the trade war. It was reported that the White House is preparing new tariffs on semiconductors. If the bears had any intention of launching a counterattack, that intent quickly faded.

Meanwhile, China's Ministry of Commerce stated that the U.S. president's actions could provoke a global humanitarian crisis. Trump's tariffs will hurt developing countries and have already triggered a wave of uncertainty and instability worldwide. Xi Jinping, in turn, urged the European Union to join forces against Trump's trade policy. According to him, this is necessary to protect the legitimate rights and interests of all parties involved, as well as to preserve fair competition and the principles of international trade. China and the EU may well form a united front against Trump's protectionism. If that happens, the trade war could escalate to a new level, potentially causing even more damage to the U.S. economy and the dollar.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to rise toward the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1495. The trade war, in the full sense of the term, has only just begun. Thus, I cannot forecast growth or decline for the pair based solely on the current information. Price movements will continue to depend on the news background, which could remain intense throughout the week. The bullish trend persists. A rejection from 1.1495 would allow for a potential reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a possible pullback.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

In the last reporting week, professional traders opened 7,049 long positions and closed 1,096 short positions. Sentiment among the non-commercial group has recently turned bullish again—thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 190,000, compared to 130,000 short positions.

For 20 consecutive weeks, large players had been dumping the euro, but for the past 9 weeks, they've been reducing short positions and increasing longs. The difference in monetary policy approaches between the ECB and the Fed still favors the dollar due to the rate differential, but Trump's policies are now a stronger influence for traders. His actions could push the FOMC into a more dovish stance and even lead to a U.S. recession.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the EU:

EU – Industrial Production Change (09:00 UTC)
EU – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (09:00 UTC)
Germany – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (09:00 UTC)

On April 15, the economic calendar includes a few less significant releases. The influence of macroeconomic news on the market's mood will be limited on Tuesday, but any new tariff-related news could once again shake the markets.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Today, you can consider buying or selling the pair if there are clear signals around key hourly chart levels. However, once again, I emphasize that price movements will depend more on the news flow than on the chart pattern. As of Tuesday morning, there are no technical signals on the hourly chart.

Fibonacci levels: