empty
15.05.2025 10:56 AM
Forecast for GBP/USD on May 15, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair climbed to the resistance zone of 1.3344–1.3357 on Wednesday, rebounded from it, and began a downward move toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3205. As of Thursday morning, the pair is trading between 1.3205 and 1.3344, making it unlikely that trading signals will form in the coming hours. Economic data from the UK has not significantly impacted the market.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave pattern has become more complicated after the latest bullish assault. The last completed upward wave broke the previous wave's peak, but the last downward wave also broke the previous low. This suggests that the "bearish" trend may be transforming into a "bullish" one. Bulls will find it difficult to rise above the 1.3425 level without new comments from Donald Trump regarding increases or imposition of import tariffs, but bears are also struggling, as recent days have shown. In my view, the last upward wave may have been a fluke.

There was no major informational backdrop on Wednesday, but Thursday morning brought a new batch of UK statistics. However, this did not provide support for either bulls or bears. UK Q1 GDP rose more than traders had expected—up 0.7% q/q and 1.3% y/y—yet industrial production in March fell by 0.7% m/m, worse than forecasts. As a result, one report offset the other, and no new bullish momentum is likely from this data. The British economy continues to deliver mixed results, and the pound's growth is driven more by the decline in the U.S. dollar than by domestic factors. Today's U.S. reports are more likely to support the pound than UK ones. Based on the market's reaction to the U.S. inflation report, I believe that any weak U.S. data could prompt a new dollar decline.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and continued to decline toward the 76.4% corrective level at 1.3118. No impending divergences are observed on any indicator. The upward trend channel still suggests a bullish trend. Only a firm break below the channel would support a prolonged bearish trend.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

This image is no longer relevant

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bullish last week. The number of long positions among speculators increased by 3,320 contracts, while short positions decreased by 1,956. Bears have lost their market advantage. The gap between long and short positions now stands at 29,000 in favor of the bulls: 94,000 vs. 65,000.

In my opinion, the pound still faces downward potential, but recent developments could lead to a long-term market shift. Over the past three months, long positions have grown from 65,000 to 94,000, while short positions have fallen from 76,000 to 65,000. Under Donald Trump, confidence in the dollar has wavered, and the COT reports indicate that traders lack strong enthusiasm for buying the dollar.

Economic Calendar for the UK and US:

  • UK – Industrial Production m/m (06:00 UTC)
  • UK – Q1 GDP Change q/q and y/y (06:00 UTC)
  • US – Producer Price Index (12:30 UTC)
  • US – Retail Sales Change (12:30 UTC)
  • US – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC)
  • US – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (12:30 UTC)

Thursday's economic calendar contains several key releases, two of which have already been published. The impact of the news background on market sentiment for the rest of the day is likely to be moderate.

Forecast for GBP/USD and Trading Recommendations:

Sales were possible on Wednesday after closing below the 1.3344–1.3357 zone on the hourly chart and also after two rejections from this area, with targets at 1.3265 and 1.3205—all of which have been reached with room to spare. Yesterday, sales were again possible from the 1.3344–1.3357 zone with targets at 1.3205 and 1.3139. Today, those short positions can still be held. Buying is possible on rebounds from 1.3205 and 1.3139 levels on the hourly chart.

Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3205–1.2695 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Indicator Analysis. Daily Overview for June 27, 2025 – GBP/USD Currency Pair

On Thursday, the pair moved upward, reaching the 161.8% level at 1.3792 (red dashed line), then retreated and closed the daily candle at 1.3723. A pullback may occur today. Strong

Stefan Doll 11:42 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Indicator Analysis. Daily Overview for June 27, 2025 – EUR/USD Currency Pair

On Thursday, the pair moved upward and tested the 161.8% target level at 1.1744 (red dashed line), then pulled back and closed the daily candle at 1.1699. Today, the upward

Stefan Doll 11:39 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 27, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement and reached the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1712. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar

Samir Klishi 11:22 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on June 27, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued rising on Thursday and repeatedly tested the 200.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3749. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar

Samir Klishi 10:53 2025-06-27 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis, Forecast and Current Market Situation

Today, following the release of data showing a decline in consumer prices in Tokyo, the Japanese yen began to weaken. This news reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan

Irina Yanina 10:43 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Forex forecast 27/06/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold, Oil and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 10:12 2025-06-27 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for June 27, 2025

EUR/USD Yesterday, concerning data was released from the U.S. GDP for Q1 contracted by 0.5% compared to the expected -0.2%. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation for the same period

Laurie Bailey 05:13 2025-06-27 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for June 27, 2025

GBP/USD The British pound is rising, but the accompanying Marlin oscillator is quite weak. Before the bulls are not just the desired targets — 1.3834, 1.3935, etc. — but also

Laurie Bailey 05:07 2025-06-27 UTC+2

USD/JPY Forecast for June 27, 2025

USD/JPY This morning, Tokyo's core CPI data showed a decline in inflation for the June estimate: the core index dropped from 3.6% year-over-year (y/y) to 3.1% y/y (with a forecast

Laurie Bailey 05:04 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for June 26-28, 2025: sell below 1.1730 (overbought - 8/8 Murray)

If the euro price consolidates below 1.1735, the outlook could be negative for the coming days. We could sell with targets at the 7/8 Murray at 1.1596

Dimitrios Zappas 18:42 2025-06-26 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.