Forex Analysis & Reviews: 09.06.2025 - Forecast for EUR/USD on June...

09.06.2025 01:53 PM

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 9, 2025

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair declined to the support zone of 1.1374–1.1380, rebounded, and turned in favor of the euro. On Monday, a new upward movement began toward the 76.4% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1454. Thus, the bullish trend remains intact, and once again the bears have failed to counter the bulls.

The wave situation on the hourly chart remains clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the last upward wave broke the previous high. Therefore, the trend is still bullish. The recent news about a possible increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum has once again forced the bears to retreat. The trend would only be considered to have turned bearish if the pair consolidates below the 1.1374–1.1380 zone.

The information background on Friday was both strong and important. Traders had been waiting all week (if not longer) for the labor market and unemployment data, as these currently have the greatest impact on the FOMC's monetary policy decisions. Previously, the Federal Reserve focused on inflation, but Donald Trump's tariffs have made the regulator shift its focus. Now, the Fed closely monitors the labor market and the economy. Although the economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, there are no serious concerns yet, but the labor market could start to shrink and unemployment could rise. For the second month in a row, traders anticipated negative outcomes, and the dollar remained under significant pressure. If the labor market begins to contract, it would mean the Fed would need to resume monetary policy easing. Inflation is important, but the Fed's second mandate is to ensure full employment. However, the Nonfarm Payrolls report for the second month in a row did not disappoint traders. While it didn't exactly thrill them either, at least it didn't disappoint. That said, the dollar saw only a 50-point gain, which by Monday morning had already been wiped out.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the 127.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1495 and rebounded from it, suggesting a possible decline toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1213. A consolidation above 1.1495 would increase the probability of further growth toward the next 161.8% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1851. A bullish divergence has formed on the CCI indicator, and a return to the 1.1495 level is possible in the near future. The trend channel indicates the bullish trend remains intact.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders closed 1,540 long positions and 4,830 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 203,000, and short positions at 120,000, with the gap (with rare exceptions) continuing to widen. Thus, demand remains strong for the euro, but not for the dollar. The situation remains unchanged.

For eighteen consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing short positions and increasing long positions. The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed is significant, but Donald Trump's policies are an even more important factor for traders, as they could trigger a recession in the U.S. economy and lead to many other long-term, structural problems.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

On June 9, the economic calendar does not contain any major releases. Therefore, the news background is not expected to influence market sentiment on Monday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Sales of the pair were possible after a rebound from the 1.1454 level with targets at 1.1374–1.1380 and 1.1320. The first target was achieved. I recommended buying after a rebound from the 1.1374–1.1380 zone with a target at 1.1454. These trades can now remain open.

Fibonacci Grids:

Built from 1.1574–1.1066 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

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