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12.06.2025 12:00 PM
Stock market on June 12: SP500 and NASDAQ slightly drop

At the close of the last regular trading session, US stock indices ended lower. The S&P 500 fell by 0.27%, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.50%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed flat at 0.00%.

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Today, stock index futures declined alongside the dollar after President Donald Trump announced plans to impose unilateral tariff rates within the next two weeks, once again escalating trade tensions. Safe-haven assets such as Treasury bonds and gold moved higher. Economists warn that further escalation in trade tensions could slow global economic growth and potentially push the world economy into recession. However, Trump's supporters argue that the tariffs are necessary to protect American jobs and industries from unfair competition, believing the measures will pressure other countries into making more favorable trade deals with the US.

Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 dropped by 0.4% after Trump stated he would send letters to trade partners outlining the tariffs. European stock futures fell 0.7% after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick noted that the European Union would likely be among the last to finalize a deal with the US. The dollar index dropped 0.4%, hitting its lowest level since July 2023, while the yen and Swiss franc led gains against the greenback. Asian stocks remained largely unchanged.

Gold climbed 0.6% on safe-haven demand, with its appeal boosted by Trump's tariff comments. Oil declined 0.6% after an earlier jump on Thursday amid heightened Middle East tensions.

The latest tariff threat came just one day after Chinese and American officials held constructive talks that temporarily eased tensions. With the US also engaged in negotiations with countries like India and Japan to reduce tariffs, some investors interpret Trump's comments as an attempt to inject urgency into the talks. It remains unclear whether Trump will follow through on his promise. The president has often set two-week deadlines that are delayed or never enacted.

The dollar remains under pressure from weaker-than-expected US inflation data, prompting traders to fully price in two Federal Reserve rate cuts of a quarter-point each this year. However, risk appetite remains fragile as geopolitical tensions and persistent trade concerns weigh on sentiment.

Treasury bonds extended gains after a combination of favorable inflation data and strong demand at the 10-year auction pushed yields lower for the fourth straight day, the longest losing streak since late April. Attention in the bond market now shifts to the upcoming sale of 30-year bonds.

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Earlier, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 1.7% to $69 per barrel, showing its strongest daily gain since October during the previous session. Tensions intensified in the Middle East as Iran threatened to strike US bases in the region if nuclear talks fail and it faces military action.

As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, today, the key objective for buyers is to overcome the immediate resistance at $6,013. A breakout here would pave the way for further growth toward $6,030. Securing control above $6,047 would further strengthen bulls' position.

In the event of a pullback driven by weakening risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves near the $5,999 level. A breakdown here would likely push the index down to $5,986, opening the path toward $5,956.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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