empty
27.06.2025 10:53 AM
Forecast for GBP/USD on June 27, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued rising on Thursday and repeatedly tested the 200.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3749. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and lead to a slight pullback toward the support zone at 1.3611–1.3633. A close above 1.3749 would increase the chances of further growth toward the next level of 1.3845. Bulls are pushing nearly without pause.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave pattern indicates the end of a short-lived bearish trend that lasted about a week. The last completed downward wave only slightly broke below the previous wave's low, while the new upward wave easily surpassed the previous high. Bearish traders are once again retreating, as the Middle East conflict came to a swift conclusion, and there remain few supporting factors for the U.S. dollar. Trump's trade war continues to have a destructive effect on the American currency.

On Thursday, two U.S. reports had a mixed impact on trader sentiment, though overall the mood remains strongly bullish. Also that day, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated that the recent spike in inflation has made the outlook uncertain. Bailey also pointed to weakening in the labor market. Earlier, MPC member Megan Greene noted that elevated inflation could become persistent and may not ease as quickly as many expect. As such, inflation could again become a serious challenge for the BoE. In this scenario, the next round of monetary policy easing may be delayed, further empowering the bulls.

On Friday, the U.S. will release the important Core PCE index, a key indicator for inflation. Historically, it tends to show only modest changes in prices, as it reflects a limited basket of core personal consumption goods. Therefore, chart signals will be especially significant for traders today.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to rise toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3795. A close above this level would allow for continued growth toward the next target of 1.4020. A rebound from 1.3795 would favor the U.S. dollar and lead to a slight decline within the still-valid ascending trend channel. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

Sentiment among the Non-commercial trader category became slightly less bullish last week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 4,794, while short positions increased by 3,983. However, bears have long lost their advantage in the market and currently stand little chance of success. The gap between long and short positions remains wide—43,000 in favor of the bulls (106K vs. 63K).

In my view, the pound still faces downside risks, but events in 2025 have completely reversed the market's long-term direction. Over the past three months, the number of long positions rose from 65K to 106K, while shorts fell from 76K to 63K. Under Donald Trump, confidence in the dollar has weakened, and the COT reports show that traders have little appetite for buying the greenback. Regardless of the overall news backdrop, the dollar continues to decline in response to developments surrounding Trump.

Economic calendar for the U.S. and UK:

  • U.S. – Core PCE Price Index (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – Personal Income and Spending Changes (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC)

Friday's calendar contains three entries that are not particularly market-moving. The news backdrop may have only a limited impact on sentiment later in the day.

GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

Selling the pair is advisable if it rebounds from the 1.3749 level, with a target of 1.3611–1.3633. I previously recommended buying upon a close above the 1.3425–1.3444 zone, targeting 1.3527, the 1.3611–1.3633 zone, and the 1.3749 level. These trades can still be kept open, and a breakout above 1.3749 would set a new target at 1.3845.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3446–1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Grigory Sokolov
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/JPY pair remains in a consolidation phase near a three-week high, supported by U.S. dollar strength and mixed market signals. The dollar is being bolstered by U.S. President Donald

Irina Yanina 12:17 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Technical Analysis for the Week of July 14–19: GBP/USD Currency Pair

Last week, the pair moved downward and broke below the 8-period EMA at 1.3509 (thin blue line), closing the weekly candle at 1.3487. In the upcoming week, the price

Stefan Doll 11:40 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Technical Analysis for the Week of July 14–19: EUR/USD Currency Pair

Last week, the pair moved downward and nearly tested the 23.6% retracement level at 1.1647 (blue dashed line), after which the price turned upward and closed the weekly candle

Stefan Doll 11:34 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 14, 2025

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1712, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and resumed its decline toward the 1.1645 level

Samir Klishi 11:31 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on July 14, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday consolidated below the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3527 and continued its decline toward the next retracement level of 100.0% at 1.3444

Samir Klishi 11:25 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Cable still has the potential to continue its decline to its support level on Monday, July 14, 2025.

GBP/USD – Monday, July 14, 2025 GBP/USD is moving in a weakening condition where this is confirmed by its price movement below the 50-EMA, which is also below the 200-EMA

Arief Makmur 07:21 2025-07-14 UTC+2

The USD/CAD commodity currency pair has the potential to correct towards its pivot point today, Monday, July 14, 2025.

USD/CAD, July 14, 2025 Although the Lonnie is moving in a neutral-bullish position, there is potential for the USD/CAD commodity currency pair to test its pivot and support levels today

Arief Makmur 07:21 2025-07-14 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for July 14, 2025

Friday's candlestick for the EUR/USD pair closed bearish, with the price consolidating below the daily MACD line. The objective for today is to secure a close below the 1.1692 level

Laurie Bailey 05:31 2025-07-14 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for July 14, 2025

On Friday, the British pound lost more than 80 pips, breaking below the daily balance line and the key signal level at 1.3510. The decline was driven by weak

Laurie Bailey 05:31 2025-07-14 UTC+2

AUD/USD Forecast for July 14, 2025

On the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair is positioned between the MACD line (0.6551) and the upper boundary of the local price channel (blue, 0.6597). A breakout of either level

Laurie Bailey 05:31 2025-07-14 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.