empty
30.06.2025 12:33 AM
Euro Currency – Weekly Preview

This image is no longer relevant

In the upcoming week, the euro is expected to maintain demand in the market. Currently, all events are aligning in its favor. I previously wrote that only the wave structure might offer support to the dollar, as it now resembles a completed five-wave structure. Consequently, we could expect the development of a corrective wave pattern. However, this is just a hypothesis, and the news background continues to exert sharp negative pressure on the dollar. Therefore, I am almost certain the market will find new reasons to sell the dollar. In that case, even the wave structure won't save it.

There will be plenty of reports, as usual. On Monday, Germany will release an important inflation report and a somewhat less significant retail sales report. In the evening, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give a speech. On Tuesday, the Eurozone inflation report will be released, followed by speeches from both Christine Lagarde and her deputy, Luis de Guindos. On Wednesday, Lagarde is scheduled to deliver another speech, as well as ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane. On Thursday, business activity indices in the services sectors of Germany and the Eurozone will be published. On Friday, Lagarde will speak once again.

This image is no longer relevant

As we can see, there will be six ECB-related speeches alone—and these are only the appearances of the top officials of the central bank. On the other hand, I do not expect any changes in the rhetoric of ECB policymakers. Lagarde made it clear two weeks ago that the monetary policy easing cycle is nearing its end, but if necessary, the central bank could still conduct one or two more rate cuts. This information doesn't make much of a difference for the euro. Whether the ECB cuts rates or not, demand for the EU currency continues to grow—but for entirely different reasons. Therefore, the European news flow is unlikely to impact current market sentiment significantly.

Wave Analysis for EUR/USD

Based on the analysis of the EUR/USD pair, I conclude that it continues to form an upward trend segment. The wave structure remains entirely dependent on the news background, particularly related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy, and there are still no positive developments. The targets for wave 3 could extend up to the 1.2500 area. Therefore, I continue to consider buy positions with targets near 1.1875, which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. A de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the uptrend, but currently, there are no signs of a reversal or de-escalation.

This image is no longer relevant

Wave Analysis for GBP/USD

The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend. Under Trump, the markets may still face numerous shocks and reversals, which could significantly impact the wave structure; however, for now, the working scenario remains intact. Trump continues to take steps that undermine the demand for the dollar. The targets for the ascending wave 3 are now located around the 1.4017 level, which corresponds to the 261.8% Fibonacci extension from the presumed global wave 2. Therefore, I continue to consider buying positions, as the market shows no intention of reversing the trend.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are harder to interpret and often lead to changes.
  2. If you're uncertain about market behavior, it's better to stay out.
  3. You can never be 100% certain about the direction of price movement. Don't forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Alexander Dneprovskiy
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD Overview – July 15: U.S. Budget Turns Surplus — What's Next?

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade lower on Monday, despite the lack of any strong fundamental reasons for such a move. Of course, one can always find or even

Paolo Greco 03:58 2025-07-15 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 15: No Agreement Signed with the EU. Mexico Gets Caught in the Crossfire

The EUR/USD currency pair traded very calmly throughout Monday, as the market continued to ignore Trump's tariff hikes. If the euro remains flat while the British pound is actively falling

Paolo Greco 03:58 2025-07-15 UTC+2

The Budget Is Now in Surplus, but the National Debt Isn't Falling

Last Friday, the U.S. Treasury Department announced the first budget surplus since 2017. Many in the market may have interpreted this as great news for the dollar

Chin Zhao 00:48 2025-07-15 UTC+2

European Commission Counts on Negotiations – the Euro Is in No Hurry to Decline

Trade negotiations between the EU and the U.S. remain in the spotlight, and their outcome is expected to have the greatest impact on the future trajectory of the euro. From

Kuvat Raharjo 00:48 2025-07-15 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Will Trump Fire Powell?

Will Donald Trump remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell from office? It's not a hypothetical question. On the surface, the answer seems obvious — "no." Following the U.S. Supreme Court's

Irina Manzenko 00:48 2025-07-15 UTC+2

The Dollar Demands a Resignation

The Powell Effect —much like the butterfly effect—is real. Markets are already betting on a sharp easing of monetary policy immediately after the Federal Reserve Chair steps down

Marek Petkovich 00:48 2025-07-15 UTC+2

UR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair dropped to a two-week low, but no significant sell-off followed, and during the early European session, the pair held above the 1.1650 level. The weakening

Irina Yanina 19:05 2025-07-14 UTC+2

EU Prepares to Retaliate

Over the weekend, it was revealed that the United States will impose 30% tariffs on all goods from the European Union starting August 1. In response, the EU is preparing

Jakub Novak 11:21 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Trump Continues to Pressure U.S. Trade Partners (Potential Resumption of USD/JPY and Ethereum Growth)

The United States, through its president, continues to exert economic—and arguably geopolitical—pressure on its trade partners, which is having a ricochet effect on global trade and financial markets. But, oddly

Pati Gani 10:00 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Do Markets Like Tariffs?

Everyone sees what they want to see. For Donald Trump, the S&P 500 rally to record highs is proof that the market likes tariffs. For investors, it's a sign

Marek Petkovich 09:06 2025-07-14 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.