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17.07.2025 11:30 AM
The Fed Needs to Be Patient

While the U.S. dollar continues to show high volatility driven by Trump's statements, Susan Collins, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, once again stated in an interview that the U.S. central bank should remain patient when considering interest rate cuts. She suggested that strong corporate and household balance sheets could mitigate the impact of tariffs on the economy.

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"Persistently favorable economic conditions overall allow the Fed time to thoroughly assess a wide range of incoming data," Collins said in her remarks. "Thus, in my view, a deliberately patient approach to monetary policy remains appropriate at this time."

It is worth recalling that this year the Fed leadership has kept interest rates unchanged, awaiting the consequences of President Donald Trump's aggressive policy shifts—especially in the area of trade. Most officials expect tariffs to drive inflation higher, and the latest inflation data supports this view.

This wait-and-see stance has certainly sparked debate among economists and analysts. Some see it as unjustified, arguing that the current high rates may trigger a recession. Others support the Fed's approach, pointing to the inflation risk and calling the caution warranted.

Consumer price data released on Tuesday showed that core inflation in June rose less than expected. However, tariffs have begun to influence prices for certain goods. "Overall, financial data suggests that the impact of tariffs may be somewhat softened by companies reducing profit margins and consumers continuing to spend despite higher prices," Collins said. "As a result, the negative impact of tariffs on labor market conditions and economic growth may be more limited."

Collins also noted that the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston has developed a new methodology to quantitatively assess how rising border prices affect domestic consumer prices. She added that she expects the Fed's preferred core inflation measure will likely reach around 3% by the end of the year before beginning to decline again. In May, it stood at 2.7%.

Technical Outlook for EUR/USD

Currently, buyers must focus on reclaiming the 1.1655 level. Only then will a test of 1.1690 become feasible. From there, the pair may climb to 1.1720, though this would be challenging without support from major players. The furthest upward target remains the 1.1770 high. In the event of a decline, significant buyer interest is expected only around 1.1590. If no support appears there, it would be prudent to wait for a retest of the 1.1550 low or consider opening long positions from 1.1495.

Technical Outlook for GBP/USD

Pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3420. Only then can they aim for 1.3464, a level that may be difficult to breach. The furthest upward target is the 1.3500 level. If the pair falls, bears will attempt to regain control at 1.3375. Should they succeed, a break below this range would deliver a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD toward the 1.3335 low, with potential for a move down to 1.3290.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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