Last week, the euro-dollar pair traded within the range of 1.1560–1.1650, repeatedly testing the boundaries of this corridor. On Friday, traders attempted to consolidate above the 1.1650 resistance level but failed, with the week closing at 1.1625. On Monday, EUR/USD buyers are once again attempting to break into the 1.17 area, despite a nearly empty economic calendar. The only point of interest is the U.S. CB Leading Index, which remained in negative territory (-0.3%). However, this is a third-tier macroeconomic report and couldn't have influenced the pair in any meaningful way.
Trade negotiations remain the central focus. There are only 10 days left until "zero hour" — August 1 — when individual tariffs are scheduled to take effect. Although Donald Trump and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced several major deals last week, there has been little progress since.
Traders are primarily interested in negotiations with the largest trade partners (the EU, Japan, India, South Korea, Canada), so headlines mentioning these countries significantly impact EUR/USD. But given the contradictory nature of the news flow, the pair has essentially been range-bound within the aforementioned corridor.
For example, on Friday it was reported that Donald Trump had introduced new demands in talks with the EU, proposing a minimum tariff on all European goods ranging from 15% to 20%, while maintaining the existing 25% tariff on European cars. In reaction to this Bloomberg-reported insider (first published by the Financial Times), the pair dropped by several dozen points, closing Friday's session at 1.1625.
However, optimism has returned to the markets today — once again, without any specific details. Risk sentiment has risen on the back of general statements and unverified (unconfirmed) leaks.
In particular, according to Bloomberg, Brussels is reportedly willing to accept even an unfavorable deal with the United States in order to avoid new tariffs. This was revealed to journalists by sources within the negotiating team.
A day before this publication, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick expressed confidence during a CBS interview that Washington would be able to conclude a trade agreement with the European Union before the declared deadline (i.e., by August 1). He also stated that "the coming weeks will go down in the record books," as the Trump administration will finalize several major deals with other trade partners as well. It is worth recalling that, according to Trump himself, the United States is "very close" to concluding a major deal with India.
In response to such statements, risk appetite increased, and the EUR/USD pair climbed toward the 1.17 level.
However, the issue lies in the fact that encouraging leaks and optimistic remarks are short-lived fundamental drivers. If the negotiating teams remain silent, market tension will only increase day by day. In that case, it will be difficult for EUR/USD buyers to maintain their positions.
Moreover, even the leaked information is not entirely "unambiguously positive." According to Bloomberg sources, although the EU and U.S. are rushing to reach a deal before August 1 and Brussels is ready to accept an imbalanced agreement, there has been no breakthrough in the negotiations so far.
The outcome of U.S.-India trade talks also remains unclear. The fifth round of negotiations concluded back on July 17, but no official data on the results has been released.
Thus, it's still too early to "trust" the northern impulse of EUR/USD, even though buyers have been attempting to break above the 1.1650 resistance for a second consecutive day.
The technical picture also reflects ongoing uncertainty. For the second day in a row (Friday and Monday), EUR/USD has shown upward momentum. However, on the daily chart, the price remains between the lower and middle lines of the Bollinger Bands, above the Kumo cloud but still on the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. On the H4 time frame, the pair is between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands, above the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines, but below the Kumo cloud. In my view, for the bullish trend to be confirmed, EUR/USD buyers need to consolidate above the 1.1700 resistance (the middle Bollinger Band on the D1 chart). This would allow the Ichimoku indicator to form a bullish "Parade of Lines" signal on this time frame, and the price would move between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands.
However, this would require appropriate informational support. In the absence of such reinforcement, the pair is likely to return to its "working" range of 1.1560–1.1650, where it may once again drift sideways.
