Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 147.92 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar and missed the pair's slight upward movement.

The increased demand for the dollar is linked to trade deals initiated by the Trump administration, which primarily benefit the U.S. economy. This undoubtedly supports the U.S. currency, but it's important to consider the broader global economic context. The relatively stable pace of economic growth in the United States, compared to other developed countries, attracts capital to U.S. assets. Another contributing factor is the Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy aimed at curbing inflation. This, in turn, makes the dollar more attractive to investors seeking higher returns.

Given the Bank of Japan's distant plans for raising interest rates, there is currently little reason to sell the dollar and buy the yen.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 148.58 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 149.20 (thicker green line). At 149.20, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal). A strong upward move in the pair is possible within the ongoing bullish trend. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 148.17 level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise to the opposite levels of 148.58 and 149.20 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after breaking below the 148.17 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 147.62 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal). Significant selling pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 148.58 level, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 148.17 and 147.62 can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – suggested price to set Take Profit or manually fix profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – suggested price to set Take Profit or manually fix profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones for guidance

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions with great caution. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally losing strategy for intraday traders.