Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

A relatively large number of macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday, but only a few of them are of significant importance. Unemployment rates will be published in Germany and the Eurozone, and Germany will also release its inflation report. It's worth noting that inflation data from EU countries no longer have a substantial impact on the market, as the indicator has stabilized around 2%. Deviations from forecasts and previous values are likely to be minimal. In the United States, the core PCE price index will be published, along with data on personal income and spending. These are also considered secondary indicators. We believe that volatility will decrease today, and the market will take a brief pause ahead of Friday.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There are no significant fundamental events scheduled for Thursday, as there are no major speeches planned throughout the day. Last night, Jerome Powell made it clear that Donald Trump's attacks do not concern him, and that the Federal Reserve may only cut the key interest rate once before the end of the year.

The trade war remains the market's top concern, and it took on a new form this Monday. We continue to believe that any trade agreements that preserve tariffs are still a trade war "in a different guise." Deals similar to the one signed with the European Union are favorable for the U.S. Therefore, each new similar agreement may trigger further U.S. dollar strength. However, in the broader and fundamental sense, the market still takes into account the new trade architecture and Trump's protectionist policies. In our view, such a fundamental backdrop is not suitable for long-term dollar growth. Therefore, we still consider the current move to be only a downward correction on the daily timeframe.

Conclusions:

On this penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs are expected to trade more calmly, as there are no major events scheduled for today. The euro still has potential for a local decline, and positions can be opened near the 1.1455–1.1474 area. For the pound, the likelihood of further decline is higher, but the key level to watch for signals today is weaker, at 1.3259.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.