Precious metals market and metal futures: Learn how copper prices are set, get aluminum price forecasts, see today’s nickel stock prices, and discover trends in the global rare earth metals market.
In this article, we explore the topic of metal futures. The global commodity market stands on the brink of a new transformation. Industrial-use metals are no longer just the foundation of industry — they are becoming a key resource for the future. The rapid expansion of the renewable energy sector, surging demand for electric transportation, and a global shift toward decarbonization are drastically reshaping consumption patterns. The energy transition requires massive volumes of conductive materials, battery alloys, and lightweight structural solutions.
The situation is further complicated by geopolitical conflicts, trade restrictions, and increasing competition for access to natural resources. Despite local slowdowns, the global economy continues to recover. Key regions, including Asia, the US, and Europe, are launching major infrastructure projects, upgrading power grids, and accelerating the development of electric vehicles. This is creating strong, long-term demand for raw materials that form the backbone of the technological transition.
At the same time, supply is under pressure. The depletion of easily accessible deposits, tightening environmental regulations, and insufficient investment in mining and processing are significantly increasing the risks of supply shortages. Logistics disruptions, political sanctions, and instability in certain supplier countries further fuel market volatility.
Modern speculative instruments amplify price swings. Financial market participants actively use derivatives and ETFs to hedge risks or profit from price movements. Demand and pricing, such as the copper market price, are driven not only by industrial needs but also by investors viewing commodities as a hedge against inflation and a tool for portfolio diversification.
Today, strategic materials are more than just a resource — they are a factor of global influence. Control over them determines economic competitiveness, supply chain resilience, and the pace of technological progress. Companies, governments, traders, and funds closely monitor price dynamics in an attempt to understand how the markets will evolve in the coming years.
The goal of this analysis is to provide a clear understanding of which global and local factors influence the cost of key resources. This material will help market participants identify upcoming challenges and opportunities, assess the sustainability of current price growth, and explore the most likely development scenarios for the next few years.
History
Over the past 15 years, commodity markets have gone through several powerful cycles, each dramatically reshaping the balance of power. The period from 2008 to 2011 marked the recovery phase following the global financial crisis. Aggressive economic stimulus measures in China, the US, and Europe triggered a sharp surge in demand for materials used in construction, energy, and manufacturing. Prices reached historic highs.
From 2012 to 2016, the market entered a correction phase. A slowdown in China's industry, overproduction, and a decline in global GDP weighed heavily on resource prices. At the same time, many mining companies that had previously invested heavily in expanding capacity found themselves facing oversupply. Prices fell, and several companies teetered on the brink of bankruptcy.
In 2017, a period of steady recovery began. Global industrial growth, infrastructure development, and a rapid shift toward low-carbon technologies began to create new sources of demand. Competition intensified for the resources required to produce batteries, power grids, and transport systems. A key driver was the transition from traditional to green energy, where light, durable, and conductive materials play a critical role.
The 2020 pandemic caused an immediate market crash. Lockdowns, border closures, and the collapse of supply chains led to a steep drop in demand. However, the rebound was swift. By the second half of 2020, prices began to soar. The reasons: massive global economic stimulus, supply shortages, disrupted logistics, and a surge in consumption driven by recovering production and the electric vehicle boom.
Since 2021, the market has entered a phase of hyper-volatility. Europe’s energy crisis, sanctions on major supplier countries, and rising electricity and transport costs have deepened shortages. This was especially pronounced in sectors with energy-intensive production, making price forecasts for aluminum particularly unclear.
The long-term trend is obvious — an upward movement with periodic corrections. Prices are subject to sharp fluctuations, but the overall direction is shaped by global structural shifts: urbanization, the transition to clean energy, the development of energy storage technologies, and the urgent need to modernize infrastructure. Obviously, our dependence on these resources will only increase in the years ahead. The market has become an arena of competition for finite supplies, where every imbalance between supply and demand is instantly reflected in price movements.
Factors shaping prices
The pricing of key industrial resources is directly tied to global economic cycles. Growth in global GDP, recovery of industrial production, increased construction activity, and technological advancements all boost demand for raw materials. The higher the pace of urbanization, digitalization, and industrial activity, the greater the pressure on the market. Falling prices are an immediate reflection of any economic slowdown, decline in business activity, or drop in consumption.
- Monetary policy is a fundamental factor. Rising interest rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing investment in industry and consumption. Tight central bank policies cool down the economy and lower demand. Conversely, periods of low rates, quantitative easing programs, and large-scale government stimulus push prices upward. Inflationary trends further fuel commodity prices, as raw materials become a hedge against currency devaluation. The global rare earth metals market is expanding.
- Exchange rates of the US dollar, yuan, and euro exert significant influence. Commodities are primarily traded in US dollars. A stronger dollar reduces the purchasing power of importing countries and puts downward pressure on prices. A weaker dollar boosts commodity prices.
- Geopolitics sets strict boundaries for global trade. Sanctions, export-import restrictions, and bans on technological cooperation immediately disrupt the supply-demand balance. Trade barriers and tariffs intensify price shocks. Policies implemented by major economies to limit exports of strategic materials or encourage domestic processing directly impact global markets.
- The energy transition is a strategic driver. The widespread shift toward solar panels, wind power, charging networks, and battery systems is rapidly increasing the demand for conductive, durable, and energy-efficient materials. ESG agendas compel companies to abandon polluting industries and adopt cleaner processes, increasing production costs and ultimately raising end prices.
- Technological progress generates new demand. The global trend includes developing powerful energy storage systems, accelerating next-generation battery innovation, and building smart infrastructure. Modern grids require vast amounts of highly conductive, durable materials. At the same time, recycling is expanding. Secondary raw materials are becoming increasingly competitive, but they still cannot meet the overall surge in demand. As a result, the metals market experiences opposing price movements: demand is high, but full supply is lacking.
- Logistics is a key source of instability. Any disruption in supply chains instantly causes price spikes. Pandemics, natural disasters, port congestion, container shortages, and rising freight rates all limit the availability of resources. With mining and processing concentrated in a few countries, local incidents quickly become global issues. Any export restrictions by major producers shift commodity flows, increasing volatility and exacerbating shortages.
The main takeaway is that the market no longer responds linearly to local events. It has become global, instantly reactive to any changes in the economy, politics, environment, or technology. Managing this risk is now a strategic priority for all market participants.
Copper: nervous system of new economy
The red metal is the nervous system of both the industrial and green economies. Without it, there can be no energy transmission, no electronics manufacturing, and no production of electric vehicles.
About 55% of the world’s copper production is concentrated in just five countries. Chile is the clear leader with a share of over 27%. Peru has around 10%, while China has 9%. The Democratic Republic of Congo and Russia each have 4-5%. This high geographical concentration creates structural risks for global supply. In such cases, metal futures may experience sharp declines.
The main sectors of copper consumption are distributed as follows:
| Sector | Share in global consumption (%) |
| Construction | 33 |
| Electronics | 21 |
| Power & energy | 20 |
| Transport (incl. EVs) | 13 |
| Other (machinery, equipment) | 13 |
Demand is undergoing a radical transformation. Electric vehicles require 3-4 times more conductive materials than traditional vehicles. The rise of solar and wind power is driving exponential growth in the use of copper for transformers, cables, generators, and energy storage systems. Each new gigafactory creates significant localized raw material shortages.
A major constraint is the depletion of aging deposits. Over the past 20 years, the average metal content in ore has dropped by nearly 30%. New mining projects are slow to launch due to environmental standards, lack of infrastructure, difficulties in obtaining permits, and a critical shortage of investment in exploration.
The situation is further aggravated by declining warehouse inventories. According to LME and SHFE data, storage levels have dropped to multi-year lows. Any spike in demand or disruption in supply immediately pushes prices higher. Current stockpiles are critically low relative to daily consumption volumes.
The outlook through 2026 remains tight. The base scenario projects steady price increases driven by consistently high demand from the energy transition and transportation sectors. An optimistic scenario is that a sharp deficit could send prices soaring to historical highs if mining continues to stagnate. In the pessimistic scenario, a correction could occur in the event of a global economic downturn. Even then, prices would remain well above pre-pandemic levels. The exchange price of copper, like that of other critical metals, is likely to continue rising.
Shortages are no longer just a risk — they are becoming a reality. The ability to control copper supplies is rapidly turning into a tool of strategic influence over the global economy.
Nickel: metal of battery revolution
Nickel is a strategic metal in the new technological cycle and is divided into two classes. Class 1 is a high-purity material (99.8%+) used in producing batteries for electric vehicles and energy storage systems. Class 2 nickel is a cheaper grade primarily used in stainless steel and alloy production.
Over the past few years, Indonesia and the Philippines have accounted for 80% of global production growth. Indonesia has emerged as a key player due to its vast reserves and aggressive industrial policies. Russia and Canada remain vital suppliers of high-grade battery-grade nickel that meets the standards of the energy sector.
The electrification of transport is driving explosive demand. A single electric vehicle using an NMC (nickel-manganese-cobalt) battery requires up to 40 kg of high-purity nickel. The mass construction of gigafactories and the growth of energy storage systems for solar and wind power generation have dramatically amplified the demand for quality raw materials.
In 2020, Indonesia introduced a ban on the export of unprocessed ore, pushing global producers to invest in domestic processing facilities. The government is actively promoting the construction of refining plants and prioritizing the export of value-added products over raw commodities. This is reshaping global supply chains and redistributing profits.
Nickel stocks: today’s price and forecast
High-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) technology promises to increase the processing volumes of low-grade ores into battery-quality material. However, the method is capital-intensive, energy-consuming, and environmentally controversial, with delays in commissioning new capacity being a persistent issue.
The market is still under pressure from speculative activity. A notable scandal in 2022, when a major participant failed to hold a short position, led to a trading suspension, a collapse in prices, and multi-billion-dollar losses. Volatility remains extreme.
A shortage of Class 1 nickel appears inevitable. Even with increasing output, processing capacity is unable to keep pace with rising demand. In a constrained supply scenario, prices are expected to rise steadily, particularly given the surge in electric vehicle production.
While a global economic slowdown could lead to a short-term correction, the underlying structural deficit is unresolved. Those who control processing facilities and have access to high-purity feedstock will hold a strategic advantage in the new energy economy.
Aluminum: metal of decarbonization
Aluminum, a key enabler of the low-carbon economy, remains the most energy-intensive industrial metal to produce. On average, generating one ton of primary aluminum requires between 13 and 15 MWh of electricity. As a result, any fluctuations in energy prices immediately impact production costs and volumes.
Aluminum price outlook
The global aluminum market is led by China, which accounts for over 58% of output, followed by Russia at around 6%, and India and Canada, each contributing 5–6%. China is actively relocating production to regions rich in hydropower to cut energy costs. Russia, with access to relatively inexpensive electricity, continues to serve as a major exporter, particularly to Europe and Asia. Canada dominates the North American supply, producing low-carbon aluminum thanks to hydroelectric energy.
The energy crisis in Europe has caused over 1 million tons of production to halt or be scaled back. Plants across Germany, France, the Netherlands, and other countries have slashed output due to soaring power prices. As a result, Asia and the Middle East are stepping in to claim market share.
Aluminum is mainly used in construction (29%), transportation (27%), packaging (19%), machinery, and electronics.
At the same time, demand is rising for “green” aluminum, products with minimal carbon footprints, favored by manufacturers of electric vehicles, solar panels, and energy-efficient buildings.
Sanctions and trade restrictions on Russian aluminum have further destabilized the market. Partial bans in Europe have disrupted logistics flows and shifted exports toward Asia, Turkey, and the Middle East.
Recycling is emerging as a strategic trend in the aluminum industry. Secondary production requires up to 20 times less energy than primary smelting. In some countries, over half of all aluminum is produced from scrap. However, the expansion of recycling is limited by the availability of high-quality raw material.
The market outlook through 2026 largely hinges on the energy landscape. If electricity prices stabilize, European smelters could resume operations, restoring the supply-demand balance. But if energy pressure persists, shortages, especially of low-carbon aluminum, will intensify. Rising consumption in transport, renewable energy, and construction could lead to a sustained increase in prices. In this evolving landscape, the aluminum market is turning into a battleground over access to cheap energy, efficient recycling, and logistical advantages.
Conclusion
The commodity market is entering a decade of structural deficits. The energy transition, electrification of transport, development of energy storage systems, and infrastructure modernization are creating sustained long-term demand for strategic materials. Consumption is growing faster than the industry can keep up with new projects. The degradation of old deposits, lack of investment in geological exploration, and tightening environmental standards are further intensifying the imbalance.
The key drivers for the coming years include the pace of green technology development, access to cheap energy for processing, global GDP dynamics, and geopolitical factors. Any disruptions in supply, logistics, or energy systems instantly lead to price shocks. The resilience of supply chains, local processing, and diversification of raw material sources are becoming critically important. The market of valuable metals is turning not just into a safer alternative to volatile currency pairs but into a true safe haven for investors.
The main uncertainties lie in the risk of a recession, potential regulatory restrictions, increasing trade barriers, and growing ESG-related pressures. Tighter export controls on key resources, rising carbon taxes, and constraints on primary material consumption could reshape the global supply and demand map.
Ignoring commodity risks is no longer an option. Companies that secure early access to reliable supplies, processing capabilities, and secondary resources will gain a strategic edge. In the new reality, the core strategy is control over raw materials, managing volatility, and ensuring supply chain sustainability. The mistake is relying on past stability. The global race for resources has already begun.
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